Economic Growth Target and Development Plans for 2025
According to the latest socio-economic development plan formulated by Vietnam’s Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI), Vietnam has set an ambitious target for GDP growth of 6.5% to 7% for 2025. This plan, based on the complexities of the global economy and Vietnam’s internal dynamics, outlines two scenarios:
1.1 Scenario One: Slow Global Economic Recovery
In this scenario, global economic growth slows, and uncertainty increases. Based on these assumptions, Vietnam’s GDP growth is expected to range between 6.5% and 7%, with inflation predicted to be around 4% to 4.5%. Despite the external challenges, Vietnam is expected to maintain steady growth.
1.2 Scenario Two: Strong Global Economic Recovery
If the global economy recovers strongly, especially in the economies of Vietnam’s key trade and investment partners, the GDP growth rate could rise to between 7% and 7.5%. This suggests that Vietnam will benefit from a global economic rebound, attracting more foreign investment and trade opportunities.
Among these two scenarios, the MPI recommends adopting the first one, which projects a growth rate of 6.5% to 7%. This scenario aligns more closely with the current international and domestic context, while still aiming for higher growth if favorable conditions arise. The ministry also emphasizes that maintaining macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation, and effectively utilizing foreign investment are critical to achieving this growth target.
The Positive Momentum of Economic Recovery in 2024
The performance of Vietnam’s economy in 2024 has laid a solid foundation for future growth. According to government data, Vietnam’s socio-economic achievements in August and the first eight months of 2024 continued to show positive trends, with several economic indicators reflecting a notable recovery.
2.1 Supply-Side Growth Momentum
Agriculture and services sectors in Vietnam continue to experience strong growth, with industrial production recovering rapidly, becoming one of the main drivers of economic growth. It is noteworthy that the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) has remained above 50 points for five consecutive months, indicating a steady recovery in industrial production. The restoration of business activities has injected strong momentum into the economy.
2.2 Demand-Side Growth Recovery
On the demand side, foreign investment continues to show strong appeal, while the real estate market has also experienced positive changes. Additionally, exports have remained a bright spot, with most of Vietnam’s major export products showing high growth rates, providing essential support for the country’s ongoing economic recovery.
The improvement in social security and living standards has also been significant. As of August 2024, the proportion of households reporting improved income reached 96.1%, highlighting the positive impact of economic recovery on the quality of life for the population.
New Challenges from Natural Disasters
Despite the robust economic recovery, the frequent occurrence of natural disasters has introduced new uncertainties into Vietnam’s economic development. In 2024, the country was hit by multiple storms and floods, which severely affected the economy and social life in many regions.
3.1 Economic Losses from Natural Disasters
According to government statistics, natural disasters caused approximately VND 34 trillion in economic losses in the first eight months of 2024, a figure 1.5 times higher than the same period in 2023. Storms and floods have not only damaged infrastructure but also significantly impacted agricultural production, industrial activities, and the livelihoods of citizens. These losses have further complicated the government’s efforts to manage socio-economic development for the remainder of 2024.
3.2 Impact of Natural Disasters on Growth Targets
Although the government has implemented several measures to address the impact of natural disasters, the ongoing effects of these disasters may hinder the achievement of the 2024 economic targets. Particularly, the disruption caused by storms and floods to production activities could dampen the recovery momentum in certain sectors.
Policies and Measures to Address Challenges
In response to the aforementioned challenges, the Vietnamese government has introduced a range of policies and measures aimed at ensuring continued economic recovery and growth, even amid the complex international environment and the threats posed by natural disasters.
4.1 Boosting Public Investment and Attracting Foreign Capital
Firstly, the government plans to accelerate public investment projects to promote infrastructure development and economic growth. At the same time, Vietnam continues to strengthen its policies to attract foreign investment, particularly in high-tech sectors such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence. These sectors are viewed as vital to achieving Vietnam’s long-term economic objectives.
4.2 Enhancing Economic Structural Adjustment
To improve economic competitiveness, the government also plans to accelerate economic restructuring and innovate growth models. Specifically, the government will promote the development of the digital economy, green economy, and circular economy, increasing production efficiency and resource utilization to align with global economic transformation trends.
4.3 Protecting Vulnerable Groups and Strengthening Social Security
In light of frequent natural disasters, the government has placed particular emphasis on building social security and protecting vulnerable groups. Through the swift resumption of production activities, job creation, and stabilizing citizens’ incomes, the government aims to mitigate the negative impact of natural disasters on the economy and society, ensuring steady improvements in living standards.
