At the press conference on Q3 2024 economic and social statistics held on October 6, Ms. Nguyen Thi Huong, Director General of the General Statistics Office under the Ministry of Planning and Investment of Vietnam, stated that the global commodity market is facing significant volatility due to various political, economic, and social factors worldwide. The escalation of military conflicts between countries and persistent instability have led to a slow and unsteady global economic recovery. This has been accompanied by sharp fluctuations in financial markets, currencies, gold, gasoline, commodities, and transportation prices. Additionally, frequent natural disasters such as droughts, typhoons, and floods have severely impacted economic and social development.

Main Causes of CPI Increase in September

According to the General Statistics Office report, Vietnam’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) in September 2024 increased by 0.29% month-on-month. The main reasons include rising food prices due to the direct impact of typhoons and their residual circulation, as well as tuition fee increases in some areas following the roadmap outlined in Decree No. 97/2023/ND-CP. The rise in housing rental prices was also a significant factor in pushing up the CPI.

Compared to December 2023, the CPI in September 2024 increased by 2.18%, and rose by 2.63% year-on-year. Overall, the CPI in Q3 2024 increased by 3.48% compared to the same period last year. Cumulatively, the CPI for the first nine months of this year increased by 3.88% year-on-year, with the core inflation rate rising to 2.69%.

Price Fluctuations

In September 2024, the national CPI increased by 0.29% month-on-month, with urban areas rising by 0.33% and rural areas by 0.23%. Among the 11 main categories of goods and services, prices increased in 9 categories and decreased in 2.

Specifically, education prices increased by 2.33% month-on-month, while restaurant and food service prices rose by 0.92%, contributing 0.31 percentage points to the CPI increase. In contrast, transportation prices decreased by 2.77% month-on-month, reducing the CPI by 0.27 percentage points.

Gold and USD Price Trends

As of September 27, 2024, the international gold price was $2,589.67 per ounce, an increase of 3.77% month-on-month. Domestic gold prices in Vietnam also rose, increasing by 1.88% in September, up 22.66% compared to December 2023, and 32.27% year-on-year. In the first nine months of this year, domestic gold prices have cumulatively increased by 26.27%.

Regarding exchange rates, as of September 27, 2024, the international US Dollar Index was at 100.95 points, down 1.4% month-on-month. The free market USD price in Vietnam was 25,329 VND/USD, down 1.79% in September but up 1.7% compared to December 2023 and 2.4% year-on-year. In the first nine months of this year, the USD price has cumulatively increased by 5.46%.

Factors Driving and Restraining CPI

The General Statistics Office noted that in the first nine months of 2024, restaurant and food service prices increased by 4%, contributing 1.34 percentage points to the overall CPI increase. Additionally, the strong rise in domestic gold prices was a significant driver of CPI growth.

Conversely, factors restraining CPI growth included a decrease in postal and telecommunication prices, which fell by 1.19% year-on-year in the first nine months.

Government Measures and Outlook

Ms. Nguyen Thi Huong emphasized that in the face of global economic uncertainties, the Vietnamese government has maintained domestic macroeconomic stability through a series of robust policy measures. The government has closely coordinated various ministries and local departments to take timely actions to address economic difficulties, promote growth, and control inflation.

According to the General Statistics Office data, the core inflation rate in September 2024 increased by 0.27% month-on-month and 2.54% year-on-year. The core inflation rate for the first nine months of this year was 2.69%, lower than the overall CPI growth rate of 3.88%.

Conclusion and Key Points Summary

• Vietnam’s CPI rose by 3.48% year-on-year in Q3 2024, reflecting the impact of multiple global and domestic factors.
• Key drivers of CPI growth include increases in food prices, tuition fees, and housing rental costs.
• Significant rises in domestic and international gold prices have further contributed to CPI growth.
• The government has implemented various measures to address global and domestic economic challenges, ensuring macroeconomic stability and effective inflation control.
• The core inflation rate remains below the overall CPI growth rate, indicating that overall price pressure remains manageable.

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