The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has released its latest Asian Development Outlook report, expressing a positive stance on Vietnam’s economic growth for the next two years. Despite global uncertainties, ADB projects Vietnam’s GDP growth rates at 6.0% for 2024 and 6.2% for 2025.
Vietnam’s economy achieved a significant recovery in the first half of 2024, with a growth rate of 6.4%, nearly doubling the 3.7% recorded in the same period last year. This robust performance is primarily attributed to improvements in industrial production and substantial growth in trade.
Industry and construction emerged as the main drivers of economic growth, expanding by 7.5% year-on-year, far surpassing the 1.1% growth in the previous year. Notably, production in sectors such as rubber, metal products, electrical equipment, electronics, and computers saw an 8.7% increase, a substantial improvement from the 0.4% growth in the same period last year.
Trade also exhibited positive trends, with exports and imports growing by 14.5% and 17% respectively, resulting in a trade surplus of $11.6 billion. The service sector maintained a growth rate of 6.6%, largely benefiting from the recovery in tourism. Agriculture sustained a stable growth of 3.4%, driven by rising commodity prices.
Shantanu Chakraborty, ADB Country Director for Vietnam, commended the resilience of Vietnam’s economy. He noted that despite global instabilities, Vietnam’s economy has maintained strong recovery momentum.
However, the report also highlighted potential risks. Inflation is projected to rise slightly to 4% in both 2024 and 2025, with geopolitical tensions potentially affecting oil prices and consequently pushing inflation higher. Additionally, weak external demand from major economies and increased global uncertainties may impact Vietnam’s exports, production, and employment to some extent.
Nevertheless, ADB’s report remains generally optimistic about Vietnam’s economy, recognizing its strong adaptability and growth potential in the face of external challenges.
